Windowed Etas Models With Application To The Chilean Seismic Catalogs

The seismicity in Chile is estimated using an ETAS (Epidemic Type Aftershock sequences) space-time point process through a semi-parametric technique to account for the estimation of parametric and nonparametric components simultaneously. The twocomponents account for triggered and background seismicity respectively, and are estimated by alternating a ML estimation for theparametric part and a forward predictive likelihood technique for the nonparametric one. Given the geographic and seismologicalcharacteristics of Chile, the sensitivity of the technique with respect to dierent geographical areas is examined in overlappingsuccessive windows with varying latitude. A different behaviour of background and triggered seismicity in the different windowsis observed and analyzed.