The impact of climate change on extreme precipitation in Sicily, Italy

Elisa Arnone, Leonardo Noto, Angelo Forestieri, Angela Candela, Stephen Blenkinsop, Hayley Fowler, Elisa Arnone, Angelo Forestieri

Risultato della ricerca: Article

8 Citazioni (Scopus)

Abstract

Increasing precipitation extremes are one of the possible consequences of a warmer climate. These may exceed the capacity of urban drainage systems, and thus impact the urban environment. Because short-duration precipitation events are primarily responsible for flooding in urban systems, it is important to assess the response of extreme precipitation at hourly (or sub-hourly) scales to a warming climate. This study aims to evaluate the projected changes in extreme rainfall events across the region of Sicily (Italy) and, for two urban areas, to assess possible changes in Depth-Duration-Frequency (DDF) curves. We used Regional Climate Model outputs from Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment for Europe area ensemble simulations at a ~12 km spatial resolution, for the current period and 2 future horizons under the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 scenario. Extreme events at the daily scale were first investigated by comparing the quantiles estimated from rain gauge observations and Regional Climate Model outputs. Second, we implemented a temporal downscaling approach to estimate rainfall for sub-daily durations from the modelled daily precipitation, and, lastly, we analysed future projections at daily and sub-daily scales. A frequency distribution was fitted to annual maxima time series for the sub-daily durations to derive the DDF curves for 2 future time horizons and the 2 urban areas. The overall results showed a raising of the growth curves for the future horizons, indicating an increase in the intensity of extreme precipitation, especially for the shortest durations. The DDF curves highlight a general increase of extreme quantiles for the 2 urban areas, thus underlining the risk of failure of the existing urban drainage systems under more severe events.
Lingua originaleEnglish
pagine (da-a)332-348
Numero di pagine17
RivistaDefault journal
Volume32
Stato di pubblicazionePublished - 2018

Fingerprint

regional climate
urban drainage
urban area
downscaling
climate change
climate modeling
rainfall
urban system
growth curve
climate
extreme event
gauge
spatial resolution
flooding
warming
time series
simulation
experiment
drainage system
Europe

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Water Science and Technology

Cita questo

The impact of climate change on extreme precipitation in Sicily, Italy. / Arnone, Elisa; Noto, Leonardo; Forestieri, Angelo; Candela, Angela; Blenkinsop, Stephen; Fowler, Hayley; Arnone, Elisa; Forestieri, Angelo.

In: Default journal, Vol. 32, 2018, pag. 332-348.

Risultato della ricerca: Article

Arnone, E, Noto, L, Forestieri, A, Candela, A, Blenkinsop, S, Fowler, H, Arnone, E & Forestieri, A 2018, 'The impact of climate change on extreme precipitation in Sicily, Italy', Default journal, vol. 32, pagg. 332-348.
Arnone, Elisa ; Noto, Leonardo ; Forestieri, Angelo ; Candela, Angela ; Blenkinsop, Stephen ; Fowler, Hayley ; Arnone, Elisa ; Forestieri, Angelo. / The impact of climate change on extreme precipitation in Sicily, Italy. In: Default journal. 2018 ; Vol. 32. pagg. 332-348.
@article{3125d344a1dc4cd59d5c8867c2b833f2,
title = "The impact of climate change on extreme precipitation in Sicily, Italy",
abstract = "Increasing precipitation extremes are one of the possible consequences of a warmer climate. These may exceed the capacity of urban drainage systems, and thus impact the urban environment. Because short-duration precipitation events are primarily responsible for flooding in urban systems, it is important to assess the response of extreme precipitation at hourly (or sub-hourly) scales to a warming climate. This study aims to evaluate the projected changes in extreme rainfall events across the region of Sicily (Italy) and, for two urban areas, to assess possible changes in Depth-Duration-Frequency (DDF) curves. We used Regional Climate Model outputs from Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment for Europe area ensemble simulations at a ~12 km spatial resolution, for the current period and 2 future horizons under the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 scenario. Extreme events at the daily scale were first investigated by comparing the quantiles estimated from rain gauge observations and Regional Climate Model outputs. Second, we implemented a temporal downscaling approach to estimate rainfall for sub-daily durations from the modelled daily precipitation, and, lastly, we analysed future projections at daily and sub-daily scales. A frequency distribution was fitted to annual maxima time series for the sub-daily durations to derive the DDF curves for 2 future time horizons and the 2 urban areas. The overall results showed a raising of the growth curves for the future horizons, indicating an increase in the intensity of extreme precipitation, especially for the shortest durations. The DDF curves highlight a general increase of extreme quantiles for the 2 urban areas, thus underlining the risk of failure of the existing urban drainage systems under more severe events.",
author = "Elisa Arnone and Leonardo Noto and Angelo Forestieri and Angela Candela and Stephen Blenkinsop and Hayley Fowler and Elisa Arnone and Angelo Forestieri",
year = "2018",
language = "English",
volume = "32",
pages = "332--348",
journal = "Default journal",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - The impact of climate change on extreme precipitation in Sicily, Italy

AU - Arnone, Elisa

AU - Noto, Leonardo

AU - Forestieri, Angelo

AU - Candela, Angela

AU - Blenkinsop, Stephen

AU - Fowler, Hayley

AU - Arnone, Elisa

AU - Forestieri, Angelo

PY - 2018

Y1 - 2018

N2 - Increasing precipitation extremes are one of the possible consequences of a warmer climate. These may exceed the capacity of urban drainage systems, and thus impact the urban environment. Because short-duration precipitation events are primarily responsible for flooding in urban systems, it is important to assess the response of extreme precipitation at hourly (or sub-hourly) scales to a warming climate. This study aims to evaluate the projected changes in extreme rainfall events across the region of Sicily (Italy) and, for two urban areas, to assess possible changes in Depth-Duration-Frequency (DDF) curves. We used Regional Climate Model outputs from Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment for Europe area ensemble simulations at a ~12 km spatial resolution, for the current period and 2 future horizons under the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 scenario. Extreme events at the daily scale were first investigated by comparing the quantiles estimated from rain gauge observations and Regional Climate Model outputs. Second, we implemented a temporal downscaling approach to estimate rainfall for sub-daily durations from the modelled daily precipitation, and, lastly, we analysed future projections at daily and sub-daily scales. A frequency distribution was fitted to annual maxima time series for the sub-daily durations to derive the DDF curves for 2 future time horizons and the 2 urban areas. The overall results showed a raising of the growth curves for the future horizons, indicating an increase in the intensity of extreme precipitation, especially for the shortest durations. The DDF curves highlight a general increase of extreme quantiles for the 2 urban areas, thus underlining the risk of failure of the existing urban drainage systems under more severe events.

AB - Increasing precipitation extremes are one of the possible consequences of a warmer climate. These may exceed the capacity of urban drainage systems, and thus impact the urban environment. Because short-duration precipitation events are primarily responsible for flooding in urban systems, it is important to assess the response of extreme precipitation at hourly (or sub-hourly) scales to a warming climate. This study aims to evaluate the projected changes in extreme rainfall events across the region of Sicily (Italy) and, for two urban areas, to assess possible changes in Depth-Duration-Frequency (DDF) curves. We used Regional Climate Model outputs from Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment for Europe area ensemble simulations at a ~12 km spatial resolution, for the current period and 2 future horizons under the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 scenario. Extreme events at the daily scale were first investigated by comparing the quantiles estimated from rain gauge observations and Regional Climate Model outputs. Second, we implemented a temporal downscaling approach to estimate rainfall for sub-daily durations from the modelled daily precipitation, and, lastly, we analysed future projections at daily and sub-daily scales. A frequency distribution was fitted to annual maxima time series for the sub-daily durations to derive the DDF curves for 2 future time horizons and the 2 urban areas. The overall results showed a raising of the growth curves for the future horizons, indicating an increase in the intensity of extreme precipitation, especially for the shortest durations. The DDF curves highlight a general increase of extreme quantiles for the 2 urban areas, thus underlining the risk of failure of the existing urban drainage systems under more severe events.

UR - http://hdl.handle.net/10447/264089

UR - https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/hyp.11421

M3 - Article

VL - 32

SP - 332

EP - 348

JO - Default journal

JF - Default journal

ER -