Probabilistic forecast for Northern New Zealand seismic process based on a forward predictive kernel estimator

In seismology predictive properties of the estimated intensity functionare often pursued. For this purpose, we propose an estimation procedure in time,longitude, latitude and depth domains, based on the subsequent increments of likelihoodobtained adding an observation one at a time. On the basis of this estimationapproach a forecast of earthquakes of a given area of Northern New Zealand is provided,assuming that future earthquakes activity may be based on the smoothing ofpast earthquakes.