Nomograms including nuclear matrix protein 22 for prediction of disease recurrence and progression in patients with Ta, T1 or CIS transitional cell carcinoma of the bladder

Vincenzo Serretta, Hans Boman, Hartwig Huland, Hideyuki Akaza, Marta Sanchez-Carbayo, Roberto Casella, Martin G. Friedrich, Paul Perrotte, Christine Mian, Pierre I. Karakiewicz, Naoto Miyanaga, Shahrokh F. Shariat, Yair Lotan, Claus G. Roehrborn, Craig Zippe, Arthur I. Sagalowsky, Ihor Sawczuk, Frank Wians Jr., Hans Hedelin, Sanaa EissaMichael J. Marberger, Serge Benayoun, Gerson Lübecke, Raina Rupesh

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Abstract

PURPOSE: We developed and validated nomograms that accurately predict disease recurrence and progression in patients with Ta, T1, or CIS transitional cell carcinoma (TCC) of the bladder using a large international cohort.METHODS: Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models targeted histologically confirmed disease recurrence, and focused on 2,542 patients with bladder TCC from 10 participating centers. Variables consisted of pre-cystoscopy voided urine Nuclear Matrix Protein 22 (NMP22) assay, urine cytology, age and gender. Resulting nomograms were internally validated with bootstrapping. Nomogram performance was explored graphically with Loess smoothing plots.RESULTS: Overall 957 patients had recurrent TCC. Tumor grade and stage was available for 898 patients, including 24% grade I, 43% grade II, and 33% grade III; 45% stage Ta, 32% T1 and/or CIS, and 23% T2 or greater. Bootstrap corrected predictive accuracy for any TCC recurrence was 0.842; grade III Ta/T1 or CIS was 0.869; and T2 or higher stage TCC of any grade was 0.858. Virtually perfect performance characteristics were observed for the nomograms predicting any TCC recurrence or grade III Ta/T1 or CIS. The nomogram predicting T2 or higher stage TCC overestimated the observed probability for predicted values greater than 45%.CONCLUSIONS: We developed and internally validated nomograms that incorporate urinary NMP22, cytology, age and gender to predict with high accuracy the probability of disease recurrence and progression in patients with Ta, T1, and/or CIS bladder TCC. These nomograms could provide a means for individualizing followup in patients with Ta, T1, CIS bladder TCC
Lingua originaleEnglish
pagine (da-a)1518-1525
Numero di pagine8
RivistaTHE JOURNAL OF UROLOGY
Volume173
Stato di pubblicazionePublished - 2005

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All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Urology

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Serretta, V., Boman, H., Huland, H., Akaza, H., Sanchez-Carbayo, M., Casella, R., Friedrich, M. G., Perrotte, P., Mian, C., Karakiewicz, P. I., Miyanaga, N., Shariat, S. F., Lotan, Y., Roehrborn, C. G., Zippe, C., Sagalowsky, A. I., Sawczuk, I., Wians Jr., F., Hedelin, H., ... Rupesh, R. (2005). Nomograms including nuclear matrix protein 22 for prediction of disease recurrence and progression in patients with Ta, T1 or CIS transitional cell carcinoma of the bladder. THE JOURNAL OF UROLOGY, 173, 1518-1525.