Multi-year drought frequency analysis at multiple sites by operational hydrology - A comparison of methods

Claudio Arena, Mario Rosario Mazzola, Marcella Cannarozzo, Mario Rosario Mazzola, Claudio Arena, Marcella Cannarozzo

Risultato della ricerca: Article

14 Citazioni (Scopus)

Abstract

This paper compares two generators of yearly water availabilities from sources located at multiple sites with regard to their ability to reproduce the characteristics of historical critical periods and to provide reliable results in terms of the return period of critical sequences of different length. The two models are a novel multi-site Markov mixture model explicitly accounting for drought occurrences and a multivariate ARMA. In the case of the multisite Markov mixture model parameter estimation is limited to a search in the parameter space guided by the value of parameter k to show the sensitivity of the model to this parameter. Application to two of the longest time series of streamflows available in Sicily (Italy) shows that the models can provide quite different results in terms of estimated return periods of historic droughts, although they seem to perform more uniformly when it comes to simulate drought-related statistics such as drought length, severity and intensity. The role of parameter selection for the multisite Markov mixture model and of the marginal probability of generated flows in providing results consistent with the characteristics of the observed series is discussed. Both models are applied to the system of sources supplying the city of Palermo (Sicily) and its environs showing the applicability of the newly developed multisite Markov mixture model to medium-to-large scale water resources systems.
Lingua originaleEnglish
pagine (da-a)1146-1163
RivistaPhysics and Chemistry of the Earth
Volume31
Stato di pubblicazionePublished - 2006

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hydrology
drought
Hydrology
Drought
frequency analysis
Sicily
return period
autoregressive moving average
water resources
method
comparison
supplying
Water resources
water availability
Italy
Parameter estimation
availability
streamflow
Time series
generators

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Geophysics
  • Geochemistry and Petrology

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Multi-year drought frequency analysis at multiple sites by operational hydrology - A comparison of methods. / Arena, Claudio; Mazzola, Mario Rosario; Cannarozzo, Marcella; Mazzola, Mario Rosario; Arena, Claudio; Cannarozzo, Marcella.

In: Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Vol. 31, 2006, pag. 1146-1163.

Risultato della ricerca: Article

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AU - Arena, Claudio

AU - Cannarozzo, Marcella

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AB - This paper compares two generators of yearly water availabilities from sources located at multiple sites with regard to their ability to reproduce the characteristics of historical critical periods and to provide reliable results in terms of the return period of critical sequences of different length. The two models are a novel multi-site Markov mixture model explicitly accounting for drought occurrences and a multivariate ARMA. In the case of the multisite Markov mixture model parameter estimation is limited to a search in the parameter space guided by the value of parameter k to show the sensitivity of the model to this parameter. Application to two of the longest time series of streamflows available in Sicily (Italy) shows that the models can provide quite different results in terms of estimated return periods of historic droughts, although they seem to perform more uniformly when it comes to simulate drought-related statistics such as drought length, severity and intensity. The role of parameter selection for the multisite Markov mixture model and of the marginal probability of generated flows in providing results consistent with the characteristics of the observed series is discussed. Both models are applied to the system of sources supplying the city of Palermo (Sicily) and its environs showing the applicability of the newly developed multisite Markov mixture model to medium-to-large scale water resources systems.

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