Modeling NAFLD disease burden in China, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, United Kingdom, and United States for the period 2016–2030

Antonio Craxi, Salvatore Petta, Rohit Loomba, Quentin M. Anstee, Massimo Colombo, Daniela C. Kroy, Yuichiro Eguchi, Chris Estes, Maria Teresa Arias-Loste, Jeffrey V. Lazarus, Christopher P. Day, Stefano Bellentani, Javier Crespo, Francesco Negro, Atsushi Nakajima, Giulio Marchesini, Homie Razavi, Michael P. Manns, Jörn M. Schattenberg, Frank TackeHeike Bantel, Loreta A. Kondili, Vlad Ratziu, Christian Trautwein, Manuel Romero-Gomez, Joan Caballeria, Andreas Geier, Arun Sanyal, Stefan Zeuzem, Junko Tanaka, Lai Wei

Risultato della ricerca: Article

104 Citazioni (Scopus)

Abstract

Background & Aims: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) are increasingly a cause of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma globally. This burden is expected to increase as epidemics of obesity, diabetes and metabolic syndrome continue to grow. The goal of this analysis was to use a Markov model to forecast NAFLD disease burden using currently available data. Methods: A model was used to estimate NAFLD and NASH disease progression in eight countries based on data for adult prevalence of obesity and type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM). Published estimates and expert consensus were used to build and validate the model projections. Results: If obesity and DM level off in the future, we project a modest growth in total NAFLD cases (0–30%), between 2016–2030, with the highest growth in China as a result of urbanization and the lowest growth in Japan as a result of a shrinking population. However, at the same time, NASH prevalence will increase 15–56%, while liver mortality and advanced liver disease will more than double as a result of an aging/increasing population. Conclusions: NAFLD and NASH represent a large and growing public health problem and efforts to understand this epidemic and to mitigate the disease burden are needed. If obesity and DM continue to increase at current and historical rates, both NAFLD and NASH prevalence are expected to increase. Since both are reversible, public health campaigns to increase awareness and diagnosis, and to promote diet and exercise can help manage the growth in future disease burden. Lay summary: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis can lead to advanced liver disease. Both conditions are becoming increasingly prevalent as the epidemics of obesity and diabetes continue to increase. A mathematical model was built to understand how the disease burden associated with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis will change over time. Results suggest increasing cases of advanced liver disease and liver-related mortality in the coming years.
Lingua originaleEnglish
pagine (da-a)896-904
Numero di pagine9
RivistaJournal of Hepatology
Volume69
Stato di pubblicazionePublished - 2018

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Spain
Fatty Liver
Italy
France
Germany
China
Japan
Obesity
Liver Diseases
Growth
Diabetes Mellitus
Public Health
Urbanization
Mortality
Non-alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease
United Kingdom
Liver
Health Promotion
Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus
Population

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Hepatology

Cita questo

Modeling NAFLD disease burden in China, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, United Kingdom, and United States for the period 2016–2030. / Craxi, Antonio; Petta, Salvatore; Loomba, Rohit; Anstee, Quentin M.; Colombo, Massimo; Kroy, Daniela C.; Eguchi, Yuichiro; Estes, Chris; Arias-Loste, Maria Teresa; Lazarus, Jeffrey V.; Day, Christopher P.; Bellentani, Stefano; Crespo, Javier; Negro, Francesco; Nakajima, Atsushi; Marchesini, Giulio; Razavi, Homie; Manns, Michael P.; Schattenberg, Jörn M.; Tacke, Frank; Bantel, Heike; Kondili, Loreta A.; Ratziu, Vlad; Trautwein, Christian; Romero-Gomez, Manuel; Caballeria, Joan; Geier, Andreas; Sanyal, Arun; Zeuzem, Stefan; Tanaka, Junko; Wei, Lai.

In: Journal of Hepatology, Vol. 69, 2018, pag. 896-904.

Risultato della ricerca: Article

Craxi, A, Petta, S, Loomba, R, Anstee, QM, Colombo, M, Kroy, DC, Eguchi, Y, Estes, C, Arias-Loste, MT, Lazarus, JV, Day, CP, Bellentani, S, Crespo, J, Negro, F, Nakajima, A, Marchesini, G, Razavi, H, Manns, MP, Schattenberg, JM, Tacke, F, Bantel, H, Kondili, LA, Ratziu, V, Trautwein, C, Romero-Gomez, M, Caballeria, J, Geier, A, Sanyal, A, Zeuzem, S, Tanaka, J & Wei, L 2018, 'Modeling NAFLD disease burden in China, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, United Kingdom, and United States for the period 2016–2030', Journal of Hepatology, vol. 69, pagg. 896-904.
Craxi, Antonio ; Petta, Salvatore ; Loomba, Rohit ; Anstee, Quentin M. ; Colombo, Massimo ; Kroy, Daniela C. ; Eguchi, Yuichiro ; Estes, Chris ; Arias-Loste, Maria Teresa ; Lazarus, Jeffrey V. ; Day, Christopher P. ; Bellentani, Stefano ; Crespo, Javier ; Negro, Francesco ; Nakajima, Atsushi ; Marchesini, Giulio ; Razavi, Homie ; Manns, Michael P. ; Schattenberg, Jörn M. ; Tacke, Frank ; Bantel, Heike ; Kondili, Loreta A. ; Ratziu, Vlad ; Trautwein, Christian ; Romero-Gomez, Manuel ; Caballeria, Joan ; Geier, Andreas ; Sanyal, Arun ; Zeuzem, Stefan ; Tanaka, Junko ; Wei, Lai. / Modeling NAFLD disease burden in China, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, United Kingdom, and United States for the period 2016–2030. In: Journal of Hepatology. 2018 ; Vol. 69. pagg. 896-904.
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title = "Modeling NAFLD disease burden in China, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, United Kingdom, and United States for the period 2016–2030",
abstract = "Background & Aims: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) are increasingly a cause of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma globally. This burden is expected to increase as epidemics of obesity, diabetes and metabolic syndrome continue to grow. The goal of this analysis was to use a Markov model to forecast NAFLD disease burden using currently available data. Methods: A model was used to estimate NAFLD and NASH disease progression in eight countries based on data for adult prevalence of obesity and type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM). Published estimates and expert consensus were used to build and validate the model projections. Results: If obesity and DM level off in the future, we project a modest growth in total NAFLD cases (0–30{\%}), between 2016–2030, with the highest growth in China as a result of urbanization and the lowest growth in Japan as a result of a shrinking population. However, at the same time, NASH prevalence will increase 15–56{\%}, while liver mortality and advanced liver disease will more than double as a result of an aging/increasing population. Conclusions: NAFLD and NASH represent a large and growing public health problem and efforts to understand this epidemic and to mitigate the disease burden are needed. If obesity and DM continue to increase at current and historical rates, both NAFLD and NASH prevalence are expected to increase. Since both are reversible, public health campaigns to increase awareness and diagnosis, and to promote diet and exercise can help manage the growth in future disease burden. Lay summary: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis can lead to advanced liver disease. Both conditions are becoming increasingly prevalent as the epidemics of obesity and diabetes continue to increase. A mathematical model was built to understand how the disease burden associated with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis will change over time. Results suggest increasing cases of advanced liver disease and liver-related mortality in the coming years.",
author = "Antonio Craxi and Salvatore Petta and Rohit Loomba and Anstee, {Quentin M.} and Massimo Colombo and Kroy, {Daniela C.} and Yuichiro Eguchi and Chris Estes and Arias-Loste, {Maria Teresa} and Lazarus, {Jeffrey V.} and Day, {Christopher P.} and Stefano Bellentani and Javier Crespo and Francesco Negro and Atsushi Nakajima and Giulio Marchesini and Homie Razavi and Manns, {Michael P.} and Schattenberg, {J{\"o}rn M.} and Frank Tacke and Heike Bantel and Kondili, {Loreta A.} and Vlad Ratziu and Christian Trautwein and Manuel Romero-Gomez and Joan Caballeria and Andreas Geier and Arun Sanyal and Stefan Zeuzem and Junko Tanaka and Lai Wei",
year = "2018",
language = "English",
volume = "69",
pages = "896--904",
journal = "Journal of Hepatology",
issn = "0168-8278",
publisher = "Elsevier",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Modeling NAFLD disease burden in China, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, United Kingdom, and United States for the period 2016–2030

AU - Craxi, Antonio

AU - Petta, Salvatore

AU - Loomba, Rohit

AU - Anstee, Quentin M.

AU - Colombo, Massimo

AU - Kroy, Daniela C.

AU - Eguchi, Yuichiro

AU - Estes, Chris

AU - Arias-Loste, Maria Teresa

AU - Lazarus, Jeffrey V.

AU - Day, Christopher P.

AU - Bellentani, Stefano

AU - Crespo, Javier

AU - Negro, Francesco

AU - Nakajima, Atsushi

AU - Marchesini, Giulio

AU - Razavi, Homie

AU - Manns, Michael P.

AU - Schattenberg, Jörn M.

AU - Tacke, Frank

AU - Bantel, Heike

AU - Kondili, Loreta A.

AU - Ratziu, Vlad

AU - Trautwein, Christian

AU - Romero-Gomez, Manuel

AU - Caballeria, Joan

AU - Geier, Andreas

AU - Sanyal, Arun

AU - Zeuzem, Stefan

AU - Tanaka, Junko

AU - Wei, Lai

PY - 2018

Y1 - 2018

N2 - Background & Aims: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) are increasingly a cause of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma globally. This burden is expected to increase as epidemics of obesity, diabetes and metabolic syndrome continue to grow. The goal of this analysis was to use a Markov model to forecast NAFLD disease burden using currently available data. Methods: A model was used to estimate NAFLD and NASH disease progression in eight countries based on data for adult prevalence of obesity and type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM). Published estimates and expert consensus were used to build and validate the model projections. Results: If obesity and DM level off in the future, we project a modest growth in total NAFLD cases (0–30%), between 2016–2030, with the highest growth in China as a result of urbanization and the lowest growth in Japan as a result of a shrinking population. However, at the same time, NASH prevalence will increase 15–56%, while liver mortality and advanced liver disease will more than double as a result of an aging/increasing population. Conclusions: NAFLD and NASH represent a large and growing public health problem and efforts to understand this epidemic and to mitigate the disease burden are needed. If obesity and DM continue to increase at current and historical rates, both NAFLD and NASH prevalence are expected to increase. Since both are reversible, public health campaigns to increase awareness and diagnosis, and to promote diet and exercise can help manage the growth in future disease burden. Lay summary: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis can lead to advanced liver disease. Both conditions are becoming increasingly prevalent as the epidemics of obesity and diabetes continue to increase. A mathematical model was built to understand how the disease burden associated with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis will change over time. Results suggest increasing cases of advanced liver disease and liver-related mortality in the coming years.

AB - Background & Aims: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) are increasingly a cause of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma globally. This burden is expected to increase as epidemics of obesity, diabetes and metabolic syndrome continue to grow. The goal of this analysis was to use a Markov model to forecast NAFLD disease burden using currently available data. Methods: A model was used to estimate NAFLD and NASH disease progression in eight countries based on data for adult prevalence of obesity and type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM). Published estimates and expert consensus were used to build and validate the model projections. Results: If obesity and DM level off in the future, we project a modest growth in total NAFLD cases (0–30%), between 2016–2030, with the highest growth in China as a result of urbanization and the lowest growth in Japan as a result of a shrinking population. However, at the same time, NASH prevalence will increase 15–56%, while liver mortality and advanced liver disease will more than double as a result of an aging/increasing population. Conclusions: NAFLD and NASH represent a large and growing public health problem and efforts to understand this epidemic and to mitigate the disease burden are needed. If obesity and DM continue to increase at current and historical rates, both NAFLD and NASH prevalence are expected to increase. Since both are reversible, public health campaigns to increase awareness and diagnosis, and to promote diet and exercise can help manage the growth in future disease burden. Lay summary: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis can lead to advanced liver disease. Both conditions are becoming increasingly prevalent as the epidemics of obesity and diabetes continue to increase. A mathematical model was built to understand how the disease burden associated with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis will change over time. Results suggest increasing cases of advanced liver disease and liver-related mortality in the coming years.

UR - http://hdl.handle.net/10447/344498

M3 - Article

VL - 69

SP - 896

EP - 904

JO - Journal of Hepatology

JF - Journal of Hepatology

SN - 0168-8278

ER -