Including covariates in a space-time point process with application to seismicity

The paper proposes a stochastic process that improves the assessment ofevents in space and time, considering a contagion model (branching process) withina regression-like framework to take covariates into account. The proposed approachdevelops the Forward Likelihood for prediction (FLP) method for estimating the ETASmodel, including covariates in the model specification of the epidemic component. Asimulation study is carried out for analysing the misspecification model effect underseveral scenarios. Also an application to the Italian seismic catalogue is reported,together with the reference to the developed R package