Future coastal hazard scenarios.A case study in NE Sicily (Italy).

The coastal dynamics is the result of several causes thatcontribute to change the balance of beach deposits over time.The beach system is not always able to maintain coastalbalance: the factors contributing to this phenomenon are to befound in both natural and anthropogenic spheres.In this context we present the analysis of marine geology andcoastal geomorphological data of a sector between Rocca diCaprileone and Tindari (north-eastern Sicily) with the aim to: i)determine their onland-offshore area relationships, ii) analyzewhich natural features may contribute to coastal retreat, iii)present coastal hazard scenarios.Until fifty years ago the natural balance of this coastal arealed to the formation of extensive sandy-pebbles beachesalternating with rocky coasts and pocket beach. The constructionof harbours of Capo d’Orlando and Sant’Agata di Militello and ofvarious coastal defense structures, and the regimentation of rivers(here called Fiumare), have permanently destabilized the naturalconditions of the coasts. Currently the coastline retreat, startedfrom about fifty years, is a unresolved problem and of increasingentity.According to VECTOR Project methodology(http://vector.conismamibi.it/), we calculate the prediction of sealevel rise for 2050 and 2100 (IPCC, 2007; Rahmstorf, 2007).