Forecasting ocean warming impacts on seabird demography: a case study on the European storm petrel

Bruno Massa, Cecilia Soldatini, Yuri Vladimir Albores-Barajas, Olivier Gimenez

Risultato della ricerca: Articlepeer review

13 Citazioni (Scopus)


Bottom-up climatic forcing has been shown to be influential for a variety of marinetaxa, but evidence on seabird populations is scarce. Seasonal variation in environmental conditionscan have an indirect effect on subsequent reproduction, which, given the longevity andsingle-brooding of seabirds, may affect population dynamics. Our study focuses on linking theeffect of oceanographic conditions (from 1991 to 2013) to the fecundity and consequently pop -ulation growth rate of the Mediterranean subspecies of the European storm petrel Hydrobatespelagicus melitensis. In this study, we examined 23 yr of > 5400 capture–mark−recaptures (CMR)and modelled the probability of skipping reproduction as a function of oceanographic variablesusing CMR models. We demonstrate that a decrease in sea surface temperature in the pre-breedingperiod negatively influences skipping propensity, and therefore hypothesize that this behaviourwould have significant influence on population abundance over time. For this reason, we analysedpopulation growth as a function of skipping probability as affected by oceanographicconditions. We used stochastic demographic models to forecast the fate of the population, andevaluated contrasted environmental condition scenarios. As a result, we found that a decrease infrequency of cold winter events would probably reduce skipping propensity, with a positive effecton the population as a whole.
Lingua originaleEnglish
pagine (da-a)255-269
Numero di pagine15
Stato di pubblicazionePublished - 2016

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

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  • ???subjectarea.asjc.1100.1104???
  • ???subjectarea.asjc.2300.2303???


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