Effects of climate and land use changes on runoff extremes

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Abstract

This work proposes a modeling framework for the analysis of alterations in the watershed hydrological response and, more specifically, in runoff extremes, induced by climate change and urbanization. A weather generator and a cellular automata land-use change model are used to generate hypothetical scenarios accounting for relevant trends at the global scale. Such scenarios are successively considered to force a spatial-distributed hydrological model, which simulates, at high time-resolution, most of the key hydrological variables at the basin scale. The framework is applied to the Peatcheater Creek at Christie basin (OK, USA). The considered climate alterations are negative and positive variations in mean annual precipitation, obtained by different configurations of rainfall intensity and frequency, and simultaneous increase in temperature. Urbanization is conceptualized by an increase in the fraction of impervious areas within the basin. The analysis of the hydrological response simulated under the different scenarios, shows how the considered perturbations, acting separately or combined, may significantly alter the runoff generation mechanisms, resulting in relevant alterations of the extreme runoff events intensity and their associated return period.
Lingua originaleEnglish
pagine (da-a)153-159
Numero di pagine7
RivistaEUROPEAN WATER
Volume59(3)
Stato di pubblicazionePublished - 2017

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land use change
hydrological response
runoff
urbanization
climate
basin
cellular automaton
return period
precipitation intensity
perturbation
watershed
weather
climate change
modeling
effect
temperature
analysis
creek
trend

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title = "Effects of climate and land use changes on runoff extremes",
abstract = "This work proposes a modeling framework for the analysis of alterations in the watershed hydrological response and, more specifically, in runoff extremes, induced by climate change and urbanization. A weather generator and a cellular automata land-use change model are used to generate hypothetical scenarios accounting for relevant trends at the global scale. Such scenarios are successively considered to force a spatial-distributed hydrological model, which simulates, at high time-resolution, most of the key hydrological variables at the basin scale. The framework is applied to the Peatcheater Creek at Christie basin (OK, USA). The considered climate alterations are negative and positive variations in mean annual precipitation, obtained by different configurations of rainfall intensity and frequency, and simultaneous increase in temperature. Urbanization is conceptualized by an increase in the fraction of impervious areas within the basin. The analysis of the hydrological response simulated under the different scenarios, shows how the considered perturbations, acting separately or combined, may significantly alter the runoff generation mechanisms, resulting in relevant alterations of the extreme runoff events intensity and their associated return period.",
author = "{La Loggia}, Goffredo and Antonio Francipane and Elisa Arnone and Dario Pumo and Leonardo Noto",
year = "2017",
language = "English",
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TY - JOUR

T1 - Effects of climate and land use changes on runoff extremes

AU - La Loggia, Goffredo

AU - Francipane, Antonio

AU - Arnone, Elisa

AU - Pumo, Dario

AU - Noto, Leonardo

PY - 2017

Y1 - 2017

N2 - This work proposes a modeling framework for the analysis of alterations in the watershed hydrological response and, more specifically, in runoff extremes, induced by climate change and urbanization. A weather generator and a cellular automata land-use change model are used to generate hypothetical scenarios accounting for relevant trends at the global scale. Such scenarios are successively considered to force a spatial-distributed hydrological model, which simulates, at high time-resolution, most of the key hydrological variables at the basin scale. The framework is applied to the Peatcheater Creek at Christie basin (OK, USA). The considered climate alterations are negative and positive variations in mean annual precipitation, obtained by different configurations of rainfall intensity and frequency, and simultaneous increase in temperature. Urbanization is conceptualized by an increase in the fraction of impervious areas within the basin. The analysis of the hydrological response simulated under the different scenarios, shows how the considered perturbations, acting separately or combined, may significantly alter the runoff generation mechanisms, resulting in relevant alterations of the extreme runoff events intensity and their associated return period.

AB - This work proposes a modeling framework for the analysis of alterations in the watershed hydrological response and, more specifically, in runoff extremes, induced by climate change and urbanization. A weather generator and a cellular automata land-use change model are used to generate hypothetical scenarios accounting for relevant trends at the global scale. Such scenarios are successively considered to force a spatial-distributed hydrological model, which simulates, at high time-resolution, most of the key hydrological variables at the basin scale. The framework is applied to the Peatcheater Creek at Christie basin (OK, USA). The considered climate alterations are negative and positive variations in mean annual precipitation, obtained by different configurations of rainfall intensity and frequency, and simultaneous increase in temperature. Urbanization is conceptualized by an increase in the fraction of impervious areas within the basin. The analysis of the hydrological response simulated under the different scenarios, shows how the considered perturbations, acting separately or combined, may significantly alter the runoff generation mechanisms, resulting in relevant alterations of the extreme runoff events intensity and their associated return period.

UR - http://hdl.handle.net/10447/250634

UR - http://www.ewra.net/ew/issue_59.htm

M3 - Article

VL - 59(3)

SP - 153

EP - 159

JO - EUROPEAN WATER

JF - EUROPEAN WATER

SN - 1105-7580

ER -