Comparison between nonparametric and parametric estimate of the conditional intensity function of a seismic space-time point process

A seismic gap can be defined as a segment of an active geologic fault that has notproduced seismic events for an unusually long time; gaps are often considered susceptibleto future strong earthquakes occurrence and therefore their identification may be usefulfor predictive purposes. In this paper we try to identify gaps in an area of South TyrrhenianSea by comparing the observed seismicity, estimated by nonparametric method, and thetheoretical one, described by a particular space-time point process (ETAS model).