Causal Models for Monitoring University Ordinary Financing Fund

Recently iterated decreasing government transfers and an increasing proportion of budget allotted basing on competitive performances, took Italian Universities started struggling with competition for funds, in particular for the UniversityOrdinary Financing Fund (FFO). Aim of this paper is monitoring variables responsible for FFO indicators, where monitoring means: describing, analysing retrospectively, predicting and intervening on variables responsible for indicators. All thisaims can be achieved by statistical techniques that should be theoretically equippedwith the distinction between predicting under observation and predicting under intervention, in order to provide correct answers to the distinct tasks of pure out ofsample extrapolation and policy making.