TY - JOUR

T1 - Application of an interspecific competition model to predict the growth of Aeromonas hydrophyla on fish surfaces during refrigerated storage (Anwendung eines Konkurrenzmodells zwischen zwei Spezies zur Vorhersage des Wachstums von Aeromonas hydrophila auf Fischoberflächen während der Kühlphase)

AU - Valenti, Davide

AU - Ziino, Graziella

AU - Giuffrida, Alessandro

AU - Panebianco, Antonio

AU - Donato, Giorgio

PY - 2007

Y1 - 2007

N2 - The growth of Aeromonas hydrophila and the aerobic mesophilic plate count (APC) on gilthead seabream surfaces was evaluated during refrigerated storage (21 days). The related growth curves were compared with those obtained by a conventional third order predictive model obtaining a low agreement between observed and predicted data (Root Mean Squared Error = 1.77 for Aeromonas hydrophila and 0.64 for APC).The Lotka-Volterra interspecific competition model was used in order to calculate the degree of interaction between the two bacterial populations (beta_{Ah/APC} and beta_{APC/Ah}, respectively, the interspecific competition coefficients of APC on Aeromonas hydrophila and vice-versa). Afterwards, the Lotka-Volterra equations were applied as tertiary predictive model, taking into account, simultaneously, the environmental fluctuations and the bacterial interspecific competition. This approach allowed to obtain a best fitting to the observed mean growth curves with a Root Mean Squared Error of 0.09 for Aeromonas hydrophila and 0.28 for APC. Finally, some considerations about the necessary use of competitive models in the context of the new trends in predictive microbiology were taken.

AB - The growth of Aeromonas hydrophila and the aerobic mesophilic plate count (APC) on gilthead seabream surfaces was evaluated during refrigerated storage (21 days). The related growth curves were compared with those obtained by a conventional third order predictive model obtaining a low agreement between observed and predicted data (Root Mean Squared Error = 1.77 for Aeromonas hydrophila and 0.64 for APC).The Lotka-Volterra interspecific competition model was used in order to calculate the degree of interaction between the two bacterial populations (beta_{Ah/APC} and beta_{APC/Ah}, respectively, the interspecific competition coefficients of APC on Aeromonas hydrophila and vice-versa). Afterwards, the Lotka-Volterra equations were applied as tertiary predictive model, taking into account, simultaneously, the environmental fluctuations and the bacterial interspecific competition. This approach allowed to obtain a best fitting to the observed mean growth curves with a Root Mean Squared Error of 0.09 for Aeromonas hydrophila and 0.28 for APC. Finally, some considerations about the necessary use of competitive models in the context of the new trends in predictive microbiology were taken.

UR - http://hdl.handle.net/10447/7335

M3 - Article

VL - 58

SP - 136

EP - 141

JO - Archiv fur Lebensmittelhygiene

JF - Archiv fur Lebensmittelhygiene

SN - 0003-925X

ER -