TY - JOUR
T1 - Visitor arrivals forecasts amid COVID-19: A perspective from the Africa team
AU - Provenzano, Davide
AU - Volo, Serena
AU - Saayman, Andrea
AU - Seetaram, Neelu
AU - Jean-Pierre, Philippe
AU - Kourentzes, Nikolaos
AU - Saayman, Andrea
AU - Sahli, Mondher
PY - 2021
Y1 - 2021
N2 - COVID-19 disrupted international tourism worldwide, subsequently presenting forecasters with a challenging conundrum. In this competition, we predict international arrivals for 20 destinations in two phases: (i) Ex post forecasts pre-COVID; (ii) Ex ante forecasts during and after the pandemic up to end 2021. Our results show that univariate combined with cross-sectional hierarchical forecasting techniques (THieF-ETS) outperform multivariate models pre-COVID. Scenarios were developed based on judgemental adjustment of the THieF-ETS baseline forecasts. Analysts provided a regional view on the most likely path to normal, based on country-specific regulations, macroeconomic conditions, seasonal factors and vaccine development. Results show an average recovery of 58% compared to 2019 tourist arrivals in the 20 destinations under the medium scenario; severe, it is 34% and mild, 80%.
AB - COVID-19 disrupted international tourism worldwide, subsequently presenting forecasters with a challenging conundrum. In this competition, we predict international arrivals for 20 destinations in two phases: (i) Ex post forecasts pre-COVID; (ii) Ex ante forecasts during and after the pandemic up to end 2021. Our results show that univariate combined with cross-sectional hierarchical forecasting techniques (THieF-ETS) outperform multivariate models pre-COVID. Scenarios were developed based on judgemental adjustment of the THieF-ETS baseline forecasts. Analysts provided a regional view on the most likely path to normal, based on country-specific regulations, macroeconomic conditions, seasonal factors and vaccine development. Results show an average recovery of 58% compared to 2019 tourist arrivals in the 20 destinations under the medium scenario; severe, it is 34% and mild, 80%.
KW - COVID-19
KW - Forecasting
KW - Hierarchical forecasts
KW - Scenario forecasting
KW - Visitor arrivals
KW - COVID-19
KW - Forecasting
KW - Hierarchical forecasts
KW - Scenario forecasting
KW - Visitor arrivals
UR - http://hdl.handle.net/10447/519415
M3 - Article
SN - 0160-7383
VL - 88
JO - Annals of Tourism Research
JF - Annals of Tourism Research
ER -