A dynamic analysis of S&P 500, FTSE 100 and EURO STOXX 50 indices under different exchange rates

Rosario Nunzio Mantegna, Athanasios A. Pantelous, Konstantin M. Zuev, Yanhua Chen, Yanhua Chen, Rosario N. Mantegna

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

5 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

In this study, we assess the dynamic evolution of short-term correlation, long-term cointe-gration and Error Correction Model (hereafter referred to as ECM)-based long-term Granger causality between each pair of US, UK, and Eurozone stock markets from 1980 to 2015 using the rolling-window technique. A comparative analysis of pairwise dynamic integration and causality of stock markets, measured in common and domestic currency terms, is conducted to evaluate comprehensively how exchange rate fluctuations affect the time-varying integration among the S&P 500, FTSE 100 and EURO STOXX 50 indices. The results obtained show that the dynamic correlation, cointegration and ECM-based long-run Granger causality vary significantly over the whole sample period. The degree of dynamic correlation and cointegration between pairs of stock markets rises in periods of high volatility and uncertainty, especially under the influence of economic, financial and political shocks. Meanwhile, we observe the weaker and decreasing correlation and cointegration among the three developed stock markets during the recovery periods. Interestingly, the most persistent and significant cointegration among the three developed stock markets exists during the 200709 global financial crisis. Finally, the exchange rate fluctuations, also influence the dynamic integration and causality between all pairs of stock indices, with that influence increasing under the local currency terms. Our results suggest that the potential for diversifying risk by investing in the US, UK and Eurozone stock markets is limited during the periods of economic, financial and political shocks.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)e0194067-
Number of pages40
JournalPLoS One
Volume13
Publication statusPublished - 2018

    Fingerprint

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • General
  • Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology(all)
  • Agricultural and Biological Sciences(all)

Cite this

Mantegna, R. N., Pantelous, A. A., Zuev, K. M., Chen, Y., Chen, Y., & Mantegna, R. N. (2018). A dynamic analysis of S&P 500, FTSE 100 and EURO STOXX 50 indices under different exchange rates. PLoS One, 13, e0194067-.